Presenting the February 2025 edition of Compass Insights, featuring national real estate market data, and key economic trends across the U.S.

Highlights:

• The January 2025 median sales price - mostly reflecting listings which went under contract in December - fell month over month (the normal seasonal trend), but rose 5% over January 2024. Continued year-over-year home price increases have added substantially to the household wealth of homeowners, but is challenging for buyers, especially younger, less-affluent and first-time buyers.

• Comparing the 2024 median house sales price to annual prices since 1990: Besides its many non-financial benefits, homeownership has typically been an excellent investment, especially over the longer term. Tax benefits - such as the $250k/$500k exclusion from capital gains - can add substantially to the financial returns.

• Appreciation and market seasonality trends in the national condo/co-op market generally mirror those seen in house sales. Condo/co-op sales are most commonly seen in and around urban centers and certain vacation destinations.

• The number of new listings rebounded dramatically in January from the usual December low, and can be expected to surge higher through late spring.

• Closed sales mostly reflect market activity - as defined by listings going into contract - in the previous month. In most regions, December is the slowest market of the year, so closed sales typically hit their nadir in January. Fueled by the rush of new listings, sales volume will almost certainly accelerate over the next 4 to 5 months. (Areas with large 2nd-home markets can see different seasonal trends.)

• The inflation rate has risen each month since September and, among other effects, has made the Fed reluctant to further reduce its benchmark interest rate. With the tariffs imposed and threatened by the current administration, opinion is divided as to possible impacts on inflation, interest rates and construction costs.

• A long-term illustration of mortgage interest rates: In January 2025, rates ticked above 7%, but then ticked back down in February. Interest rates are one of the fundamental components in housing affordability calculations, along with home prices, household income and, lately, homeowner's insurance rates.

• This chart compares appreciation in the national median home price to growth in median household income. Since 2012, and especially from 2020, the gap between home price (blue line) and household income (green line) has widened. In consequence, home sales have increasingly skewed toward older, wealthier buyers - a considerable change in social and market dynamics. Among other issues, older homeowners tend to move much less often than younger age segments, impacting the supply of new listings coming on market.

• With many short-term ups and downs, stock markets have risen dramatically higher over the past 14 months, with substantial effect on the wealth of those invested in such assets. Such households are more likely to be willing and able to pay all-cash when home buying - and so be less concerned about interest rates.

• As the number of resale (or existing) home listings has remained low by long-term norms, the number of new-construction homes for sale has reached its highest count since 2008, and their sales have increased as a % of total sales. Construction is most concentrated in states such as Texas, Florida and North Carolina.

• Serious delinquency in credit card payments (overdue by 90+ days) has hit its highest rate since 2012, but due to home-price appreciation and long-term, fixed-rate loans, serious delinquency in mortgage payments - illustrated below - remains close to historic lows.

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