Austin kicked off 2026 with a notable start to the New Year. The City of Austin recorded 383 single-family home sales in January, a decrease of 13.3% from the previous year.

While volume dipped, the market showed signs of a price floor as the median sales price settled at $590,000, representing a 4.3% increase year-over-year. The average sales price followed suit, rising slightly to $778,033 (+0.8%).

Price per square foot averaged $336, mirroring the seasonal shifts seen in previous years. Active inventory continues to be a key story; as of early February, there are 1,999 active listings. Months of supply currently sits at 5.22, trending toward the 6-month threshold of a balanced market.

- Buyers: Selection is high, and the "power shift" remains in your favor. With over five months of supply, you have the luxury of choice and room for negotiation; however, fresh, well-positioned homes are moving quickly.

- Sellers: The early-year influx of new listings means fresh inventory to choose from. Homes that are realistically priced and well-presented are the ones winning multiple offers, while others are becoming "lessons in patience."

Months Supply Of Inventory: Trending Toward Balance

At 5.22 months, Austin's supply levels have recovered from the seasonal December dip. This metric confirms that the power shift we discussed throughout late 2025 is the new normal for early 2026.

- $400k–$499k: This segment sits at 4.8 months of supply, indicating a market that is still fairly active but moving toward balance.

- $500k–$599k: This range is seeing a significant inventory build-up at 8.0 months of supply, offering buyers substantial leverage and choice.

- $600k–$699k: Supply remains lower in this bracket at 4.3 months, as buyers seek value just above the median price point.

- $700k–$799k: Currently the tightest segment among these tiers at 3.8 months of supply.

- $800k–$1.19M: These luxury-adjacent tiers average roughly 5.5 months of supply.

- $1.2M–$1.39M: Inventory stretches slightly further here to 5.8 months.

- $1.4M+: The high-end market is well-supplied at 7.8 months, requiring premium presentation and strategic patience from sellers.

Price Cuts & Compression: Negotiations Continue

Price adjustments remain a critical tool for success. In January, 54% of all active listings featured at least one price reduction.

- The Gap: The average price reduction is holding steady at 9% off the original asking price.

- Outcome: Homes that adjust their price are moving under contract after a median of 35 days following the drop.

- List-to-Close: For the total market, homes are closing at 90.81% of their original list price. This ~9% gap is the data-backed justification for buyers to negotiate hard, particularly on listings that have surpassed the 30-day mark.

Note: A 18% spike in expired listings is a clear signal that the market is rejecting initial pricing or poorly positioned homes that don't align with current buyer leverage. To avoid becoming a statistic, sellers must launch as the "shiny penny"—perfect condition and sharp price—to stand out against the noise of leftover inventory.

Sales & Demand Trends

The "New Spring" market has officially arrived, but it’s landing in a landscape where buyers are significantly more selective than in years past.

- New Listings: January saw 797 new listings enter the Austin market, down 15.4%.

- New Under Contracts: Despite the year-over-year dip in new supply, buyer demand remains resilient. 617 homes went under contract last month, up 6.9%.

Where the Market is Moving: Sales by Price Segment

- The Entry Level ($200k - $399k): 92 homes closed in this range. The vast majority of activity here was concentrated in the $300k–$399k bracket, which recorded 70 sales.

- The Mid-Market ($400k - $699k): This remains the most active portion of the Austin market, accounting for 138 total sales. The $400k–$499k segment was the single most productive price point of the month with 63 closings.

- The Move-Up Market ($700k - $999k): 77 homes sold in this tier, split between the $700k–$799k bracket (36 sales) and the $800k–$999k bracket (41 sales).

- The Luxury Tier ($1M+): Austin's high-end market continues to find its footing, with 74 total sales recorded over the million-dollar mark. The $1.4M+ segment led this group with 45 closings, outperforming the lower luxury brackets.

90-Day Trend & Month-to-Date (February): The Early Spring Push & Inventory Realities

Looking at the trajectory from November through January, the Austin market has moved from a balanced stalemate into a high-inventory "Spring Thaw" that arrived ahead of schedule.

- November 2025 (The Balance): The market entered the holiday season with supply and demand in almost perfect lockstep, recording 579 new listings and 617 new under contracts. This period was marked by a steady backlog of inventory that gave buyers early leverage.

- December 2025 (The Seasonal Squeeze): As expected, the holiday freeze saw new supply plummet by over 34% to 383 new listings. However, buyer demand remained surprisingly resilient with 497 homes going under contract, causing a temporary seasonal tightening of inventory.

- January 2026 (The Early Thaw): The market "woke up" with a vengeance in January. New listings surged to 797, a 108% increase from December, as sellers rushed to position themselves for the new year. Buyers met this supply with intent, as new under contracts climbed to 617, a 24% increase month-over-month.

- The Backlog Warning: While activity is high, the "power shift" is underscored by a rising graveyard of mis-priced listings. Expired listings hit 864 in January, an 18% increase year-over-year, following a heavy November where 816 listings failed to sell. This confirms that while the market is moving, buyers are aggressively rejecting any inventory that isn't priced or positioned with precision from day one.

Days on Market: The median DOM now sits at 57 days, a 90-day high that highlights the divide between the "shiny pennies" that sell fast and the stale inventory becoming "lessons in patience".

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